GBPUSD 11-30-06

11-30-06

GBPUSD

The long trade from 1.8944 was closed yesterday at 1.9447. I would be interested in re-establishing the long position on a pullback to 1.9485.

EURUSD 11-30-2006

11-30-06

EURUSD

The long trade from 1.2944 was closed yesterday at 1.3147. I would be interested in re-establishing the long position on a pullback to 1.3170 after the EURUSD rallies past 1.3250.

USDJPY 11-30-06

11-30-06

USDJPY

The short trade was finally entered at 1.1650 and the first target was reached at 1.1610. Let's move the stop loss on the other two contracts to 1.1630. This should be safe in case the USDJPY tries to rally past 1.1620. If it does rally past 1.1620, it will try to absorb the supply at 1.1650 again. If the area of supply at 1.1620 turns the USDJPY lower, take a profit at 1.1578 and move the stop loss to 1.1610 on the last contract.

USDCHF 11-30-06

11-30-06

USDCHF

The breakout trade above 1.2115 failed and was stopped out for a 10 pip loss. There is a breakout area inside the big trading range at 1.2040 that may turn the USDCHF higher on a sell off this morning. If a bounce does happen, that would mean the range is starting to narrow.

GBPUSD 11-29-06

11-29-06

GBPUSD

Let's move the stop loss for the GBPUSD on the last contract to 1.9447. The total gain from our entry at 1.8944 is 503 pips if we are stopped out.

EURUSD 11-29-06

11-29-06

EURUSD

Let's move the stop loss for the EURUSD to 1.3147 on the last contract. The total gain from the entry at 1.2960 is 183 pips if we are stopped out.

USDJPY 11-29-06

11-29-06

USDJPY

The USDJPY is sitting on breakout support at 1.1569. If it reaches 1.1650, it is a short. Use a 10 pip stop loss and a first target of 1.1610 and a second target of 1.1570. Move the stop loss to even after the first target. If the USDJPY slips below 1.1564, move the stop loss to 1.1574 on the rest of the position.

USDCHF 11-29-06

11-29-06

USDCHF

The sell off in the dollar continued yesterday but the pace has slowed.
The bottom of the trading range in the USDCHF was extended yesterday to 1.2012.
This makes the big trading range 1.2012 up to 1.2115. I will trade a breakout out of the top of the range at 1.2116.

GBPUSD 11-28-06

11-28-06

GBPUSD

The GBPUSD ran into the area of supply at 1.9448 on Sunday, and it has been trading in a range between 1.9448 and 1.9307 for the last two days. Depending on your platform, you may have been able to participate in the run up to 1.9448 if your platform opened for trading at 1:00 PM Eastern time. If the GBPUSD can rally past 1.9404, move your stop to 1.9370 to lock in another 101 pips on the last contract. You may want to use the moving average at 1.9355 as a trailing stop since it has reached the trading range. That usually means the move higher could be stalling.

EURUSD 11-28-06

11-28-06

EURUSD

The EURUSD has traded in a range between 1.3160 and 1.3085 for the last two days. This has allowed the moving average on the 60 minute chart to catch up to the trading range. You may want to use the moving average as a trailing stop in case the up move is stalling out. The moving average is currently at 1.3113. A rally past 1.3160 would allow us to move the hard stop loss to 1.3100 so that we can continue to trail the up move.

USDJPY 11-28-06

11-28-06

USDJPY

The USDJPY looks like it is going to attempt to rally above the 1.1628 resistance area. If that happens, the areas of demand at 1.1630 is too close to the area of supply at 1.1650 for a short trade. Pass on trading this pair until the profit zone opens up.

USDCHF 11-28-06

11/28/06

USDCHF

The USDCHF has traded in a range between 1.2114 and 1.2029 for the last two days. It may continue to trade in this range for another day since the EURUSD and GBPUSD both came into areas of supply that have stopped the up moves for the time being. A break above 1.2114 would be a sign that the down move is over for now, and it would be a legitimate breakout long trade since the price will be above the moving average on the 60 minute chart.

GBPUSD 11-26-06

11-26-06

GBPUSD

A week ago Friday, the GBPUSD traded down to a low of 1.8834. The high this past Friday was 1.9350. That is over 500 pips in a week.
If you are trading spot forex, you need to catch a few trend type moves like this to make your year. As a matter of fact, the large currency funds are counting on a year end trend type move to make their year since their performance this year has been very poor.
If the professionals are having a bad year, I suspect that the average spot forex day trader is too.
I would be careful entering this late in the move in case the funds all look for the exits at once.

The last entry I posted for GBPUSD was 1.8944 on 11-19-06. The first and second targets were reached.
I have been trailing the stop loss on the last contract since that entry.
I intend to ride out the remainder of the trend move with this last contract by using a wide stop loss until the GBPUSD runs into an area of supply
large enough to stop the up trend. Move the stop loss to 1.9269 on the last contract to lock in 325 pips. If the GBPUSD rallies past 1.9350, move the stop loss to 1.9306. The next area of supply is 1.9450.

USDCHF 11-26-06

11-26-06

USDCHF

I never entered a short position in the USDCHF last week. I like to enter short trades on pullbacks to breakdown areas, and when a strong trend move happens, you run the risk that there will not be any pullbacks. I always like to know my risk before entering any trade, and pullbacks give you the opportunity to define that risk. Prior to the sell off, the USDCHF traded in a tight range between 1.2400 and 1.2450 for most of the week and our last trade was actually a counter trend long trade at 1.2410. The USDJPY did pullback to the 1.1822 breakdown area giving us an opportunity to participate in the dollar sell off. The long positions in the EURUSD and GBPUSD were entered on pullbacks to breakout areas.

There will not be any more counter trend trades in the USDCHF until the moving average on the 60 minute chart catches up to the middle of the trading range. That would take about a week of trading in a very narrow trading range. There are no areas of demand on the higher time frame charts that would cause that type of horizontal action until 1.1622. Watch for a bounce at 1.2015 which was the low on 6-9-06 this year and 1.1920 which was the year low on 5-19-06. I am riding the dollar downtrend with long positions in the EURUSD and GBPUSD for now, but I will look to short
a retrace to 1.2221 as long as the risk to reward is at least 2 to 1 at the time of entry.

USDJPY 11-26-06

11-26-06

USDJPY

The sell off in the USDJPY from 1.1822 to a low of 1.1556 has not been as big as it has in the USDCHF. I did not participate in either short trade.
The moving average on the 60 minute chart is at the top of the 1.1611 to 1.1560 trading range. The USDJPY has a good chance of trading in a
trading range for the first part of the week. It is over 20 pips from the low of the range, so a long trade from the bottom of the range is out.
I am not interested in a breakout trade since the next area of supply is very close.
I would be interested in shorting the USDJPY if it can reach 1.1628 as long as it does not base above 1.1585 before reaching 1.1628.
Use a sell stop at 1.1627 once the USDJPY trades above 1.1628 and a 10 pip stop loss after entry. The first target will be the 1.1560 area.
If the USDJPY bases between 1.1580 and 1.1600, I will short the 1.1650 area instead with a first target of 1.1600.

EURUSD 11-26-06

11-26-06

EURUSD

Hope everyone had a nice Thanksgiving.
The EURUSD ended the week near 1.3100. The last place that the EURO based below 1.3100 was near 1.3070. If you are still long from 1.2943, move your stop loss to 1.3063 to lock in 120 pips on the last contract from this trade. The next area of supply is near 1.3156.
If you are looking for an entry, you have to be willing to risk over 30 pips for a stop loss if you buy right here. We have been talking about the possibility of a strong trend trade developing in the currency markets for a month now and with the 1.2943 entry in the EURUSD and the 1.8944 entry in the GBPUSD, we are in good shape to ride it as far as possible.